Specter is vulnerable in Democratic primary

By Christopher P. Borick
Philadelphia Inquirer

It seems like a done deal: Arlen Specter will be the Democratic nominee in Pennsylvania's 2010 U.S. Senate race. With the support of an all-star cast of Democrats that includes President Obama, Vice President Biden, Gov. Rendell, and Sen. Bob Casey Jr., it appears the path to the nomination has been cleared for the recent defector from the Republican ranks.

Surely no up-and-coming Democratic politician - such as U.S. Rep. Joseph Sestak or State. Rep. Josh Shapiro - would want to challenge a well-funded, well-connected incumbent who has likely given his new party the magical 60th seat in the Senate. That would only draw the ire of Democratic leaders in Washington and Harrisburg.

It may very well be that simple. But we shouldn't pencil in the name of the newest Democratic senator on the general-election ballot just yet.

One need look no further than the 2004 Republican Senate primary to find evidence that a candidate with ample funds and the support of party leaders can be pushed to the brink in an intraparty showdown. The conditions of that primary were notably similar to those emerging in the Democratic race today, with Specter again playing a leading role.

Few believed Specter was vulnerable in the 2004 GOP primary, despite long-simmering resentment among conservatives. After all, he was a four-term incumbent with the backing of the Republican establishment. George W. Bush, Rick Santorum, and Tom Ridge all threw their considerable influence behind him. Nevertheless, a fairly unknown congressman from the Lehigh Valley, Pat Toomey, came within a whisker of defeating him. How?

Toomey wisely recognized that Specter's popularity with moderates meant little in a closed party primary. He used his relatively limited resources to focus on Specter's shortcomings as a conservative, and to engage activists on the right to offset his lack of support from the party elite. While Toomey ultimately failed, he may have given a daring Democrat the perfect recipe for taking down Specter in 2010.

Perpetually denigrated as a RINO (Republican In Name Only) during much of his career, Specter has instantly become Pennsylvanian's most famous DINO: Democrat In Name Only. A smart fifth grader with access to Google could put together decades' worth of votes putting Specter at odds with Democratic positions. From Anita Hill to union card check, there is no shortage of material.

And, as recent elections have shown, nothing ramps up Democrats like tying a candidate to Bush. Even with Bush out of the spotlight, a series of ads reminding Democratic primary voters of the many times Specter went along with the former president could be a potent weapon. Specter's good friend Joe Lieberman can attest to the perils of getting too close to Bush.

A Democratic primary challenger might also be able to undermine one of Specter's greatest assets: his electability in November. Back in 2004, that helped Specter squeak out the victory over Toomey. But with well over a million more Democrats than Republicans in the commonwealth, any Democrat who is even remotely mainstream can claim to be favored to defeat the GOP nominee. This is especially true if a staunch conservative such as Toomey, the current front-runner, wins the Republican nomination. So Specter's general-election strengths would not be special.

Finally, will Pennsylvania's Democratic voters, flush with recent electoral successes, want to settle for Arlen Specter? Party leaders may welcome one more senator, but will rank-and-file Democrats give Specter a pass? They don't owe him anything. He may not be the ideal right-wing villain that Santorum was, but he certainly hasn't been a model Democrat, either.

When a party is weak, settling makes strategic sense. But the Democratic Party in Pennsylvania is anything but weak. As the excitement generated by Specter's defection wears off, Democratic voters may start to wonder whether they can do better.

Specter may be tailor-made for a general election in Pennsylvania. He is a true moderate in a truly moderate state. And with names like Obama, Rendell, and Casey in his camp, it's easy to see why many Democrats may take a pass on challenging him next year.

However, as Toomey demonstrated five years ago, there is plenty of opportunity for an entrepreneurial candidate to challenge Specter within the confines of a primary. And although Toomey's 2004 bid was unsuccessful, the loss certainly didn't end his political career. Ironically, it may be the model that encourages an up-and-coming Democrat to try to take down Specter next spring and face Toomey in November 2010. Sphere: Related Content